Wednesday, January 25, 2012



Note: A Stratfor report from the south.

Published: 24/01/2012 12:41 By: SUN

Zetas, the cartel that grew the most in 2011: Stratfor
The growth of "Los Zetas" has been much higher than expected, despite
the federal forces' offensive against the violent cartel.

MEXICO CITY (SUN) The growth of "Los Zetas" has been much higher than
expected, despite the federal forces' offensive against the violent
cartel. The former armed wing of the Gulf cartel has become a
criminal organization that operates in most of Mexico, more than the
Sinaloa cartel.

Meanwhile, the once powerful cartels of the Carrillo Fuentes and the
Arellano Félix, are just a shadow of what they were a decade ago, and
now they play just as subsidiaries of the group led by Joaquin "El
Chapo" Guzman, finding them unable to recover on their own in which
were once strongholds, such as Juarez and Tijuana.

These and other considerations are Strategic Forecasting Inc.
(Stratfor) on the scene last year in terms of organized crime in
Mexico, among which include a poor prognosis in which he says related
violence persist from drug trafficking in the country.

According to a report by the Office of Special Investigations into
Organized Crime of the Attorney General of the United States cited by
the consultant, "Los Zetas" now operate in 17 states of Mexico,
surpassing the Sinaloa cartel has been downward since occupies only
16 of the 23 states in which developed its activities in 2005.

The cartel formed by ex-soldiers also managed to control the state of
Zacatecas, and Durango keeps stalking, a state that is characterized
by maintaining the operations of the Sinaloa cartel.

The expansion of "Los Zetas", says Stratfor, represents a great risk
from rising violence in areas of Mexico. In the case of Zacatecas,
Sinaloa cartel could try to recover the territory it once held, while
in Durango would be fighting to keep away the "zetas" cells of the
state. Guadalajara is still one of the hot spots, as the organization
of "El Chapo" defend the city from raids of "Los Zetas."

The analysis does not provide greater risks to those already
mentioned for the Sinaloa cartel with the growth of "Los Zetas", but
notes that the Sinaloa Federation remains stable, and may even be
expanding its operations in methamphetamine production to countries
Central America and Guatemala.

The Carrillo and Arellano, weaker

The strength of Guzman Loera drug cartel also helped reduce the rates
of violent killings in Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana, this due to the
hegemony that it keeps on Carrillo Fuentes family and Arellano Felix,
organizations who continue to weaken.

"Vicente Carrillo still controls the three main entry points for
drugs to El Paso, Texas, but their organization seems unable to
expand their operations or moving narcotics in large quantities in
their areas due to the pressure of the Sinaloa cartel."

For Stratfor, the Juarez cartel "is only a shadow of the organization
that was a decade ago, and his weakness and inability to counter the
inroads of the Sinaloa cartel in Juarez helped to lower rates of
violence in 2011," says report.

The same mechanics, says the analysis, are in Tijuana in 2011, where
the cartel of the Arellano Felix was "weak and powerless remain as a
subsidiary of the Sinaloa Federation, unable to claim the Plaza of
Tijuana alone."

Narcos have polarized; Zetas control the east and Chapo the west:
The former group of assassins for the Gulf cartel is the highest
growth in 2011, he said.
La Jornada
Posted: 24/01/2012 16:32

Mexico, DF. Drug trafficking in Mexico has been polarized, with the
Sinaloa cartel controlling the western and Los Zetas the eastern,
said the Stratfor security consultancy specializing in its annual
report, which also found that the latter group is the highest growth
in 2011.

"Although much has been said about the flow of Mexican cartel
landscape, these two groups have emerged as the dominant forces in
the country," and who once were powerful cartels have been aligned to
one of two groups, said Stratfor.

According to the International Agency for safety analysis, to attract
other criminal groups to its ranks, the Sinaloa Cartel and Los Zetas
employ asymmetric strategies that can be summarized as "silver or lead."

The cartel led by Chapo Guzman, says Stratfor, prefer to buy
alliances and supporters, as the group Los Zetas made ​​up mostly
of former military opts for the "lead" or coercion, and power based
on force and fear.

With these strategies, in 2011 the Zetas have been operating in 17
states, while the Sinaloa cartel would do so only in 16, against the
23 states they served in 2005.

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