AZMEX POLICY-2 30 OCT 2018
Note: interesting op-ed from Proceso -Mex
The caravan and its effects
BY OLGA PELLICER,
OCTOBER 30, 2018
ANALYSIS, THE TRANSITION, PRESIDENT 2018
https://www.proceso.com.mx/557443/la-caravana-y-sus-efectos
Cd. MEXICO (Proceso) .- The Central American migration that enters Mexico in transit to the United States is not a new phenomenon. According to data from the United Nations Agency for Refugees (UNHCR), since the beginning of this century it has oscillated between 350 thousand and 500 thousand people per year. Their income takes place by various points, formal and informal. The majority arrive in small groups that cross the waterways to enter paths set in the middle of the jungle.
The issue began to be a disturbing problem in the Mexico-United States agenda since the summer of 2014. That year, the unexpected increase of hundreds of unaccompanied Central American minors who entered the United States gave rise to a humanitarian crisis that occupied front pages. in the international press.
President Obama then requested urgent help to Mexico to stop the passage of children and, in general, of Central American migrants. Since then, the deportations from Mexico have been increasing and the requests of the Americans to increase the responsibility of our country in stopping the migration to the north are more and more frequent.
Although the previous situation is a well-known phenomenon, on which numerous studies have been published in Mexico and the United States, the caravan of migrants that has been touring Mexico for a week has surprised national and international public opinion. Various circumstances make it a striking and disturbing case.
It is surprising, first of all, the size of the quota. It is not normal for migrants in transit to arrive in a group that ranges, according to approximate data, between 4 and 5 thousand people.
Nor is the degree of organization not to disperse, the discipline not to depart from its objective, which is to walk to the border with the United States, and the nationalist spirit that led to wave flags and sing the national anthem of Honduras. Although according to press reports, the caravan grows with groups of Salvadoran, Guatemalan and even Mexican nationality, the particular hallmark of this mobilization has been the national identification with Honduras.
The second point that draws attention is the political moment chosen to mobilize. There are two events that could not have been ignored: the mid-term elections in the United States on November 6 and the transition process towards the inauguration of the president-elect in Mexico on December 1.
US elections will determine whether or not Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The polls show signs of an important advance of the democrats that would lead them, perhaps, to conquer both majorities. Such a possibility, if fulfilled, seriously hampers Trump's progress towards his re-election in 2020. This explains the intensity of his activity to influence voters using the racist and xenophobic discourse that gave him such good results during his presidential campaign. The migrant caravan slowly approaching the southern border of the United States came to him as a present.
Rarely in the political life of the United States has the effort to create fears and uncertainties in the population due to the arrival of migrants been so intense. Trump has used all possible arguments, most of them false, to turn them into a central problem for the national security of his country. Racism and xenophobia reach unsuspected proportions that, despite the little support of the arguments to justify them, continue captivating the imagination of millions of Americans.
The situation places the incoming government of López Obrador before difficult circumstances. Since the first contacts of the transition team with Trump, the issue of Central America has been present. It was raised in greater detail in the letter sent by AMLO after Pompeo's visit to Mexico, when his team proposed a trust for the integral development of Central America with contributions from the United States, Mexico and the Central American countries. Such is, from the perspective of López Obrador, the way to combat migration. Without further elaboration was the basis of his statement on providing work visas to Central Americans because there would be employment.
The unexpected was the reaction of Mexican public opinion, which immediately protested against offering foreigners what Mexicans urgently need. Indeed, it is difficult to be generous when migrants land in the poorest state of the country, whose inhabitants are close, in their poverty and lack of opportunities, to migrants crossing the Suchiate.
On how to respond to Central American migration they place a foreign policy issue in the place of priority during the first days of the Lopez Obrador administration. A proposal for the relationship with Central America is expected from the appointed chancellor, Marcelo Ebrard, which combines several elements, among others the financing to launch projects for the integral development of the region, in particular of the countries of the Northern Triangle: Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras; impossible to achieve without agreements with international development banks, as well as with donor countries in the developed world, starting, of course, with the United States.
Secondly, a good political understanding with the governments of each of the Central American countries, a difficult task due to the institutional weakness that prevails in them - a convincing document for its rigor in diagnosing the priority problems, the actions to be taken and the mechanisms of evaluation of results.
Nothing would be more discouraging than repeating the failure of previous projects such as the famous Puebla-Panama Plan; a collaboration with the work of the Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) would help to solidify the proposal.
Finally, as in other problems that the Foreign Ministry deals with, a clear coordination mechanism is required with the various government agencies that participate in the relationship with Central America, without neglecting, of course, those who deal with the very serious problems of security and violence on the border: Defense and Navy.
Will the new chancellor fulfill that task? The response will tone the enthusiasm or disenchantment with which the fourth transformation begins.
This analysis was published on October 28, 2018
End
Not to forget:
Luis Videgaray: Mexico decides who enters our country
Detalles Publicado el Viernes 10 de marzo de 2017
Http://www.eldiariodesonora.com.mx/notas.php?nota=87134
"the decisions of who enters Mexico, are made by Mexico and only Mexico"
Luis Videgaray Caso, Mexican Foreign Minister
10 March, 2017
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