Sunday, July 28, 2013
AZMEX I3 23-7-13
AZMEX I3 23 JUL 2013
Note: debatable conclusions.
Decreasing Mexican immigration will change illegal immigration dynamics, says CSIS
July 21, 2013 | By David Perera
A slowing Mexican population growth rate, economic growth and governance improvements mean that unauthorized Mexican immigration to the United States will continue its decline--changing the dynamics of U.S. and Mexican immigration policy, says a July report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The report (.pdf), authored by Carl Meacham and Michael Graybeal, both of the CSIS Americas Program, acknowledges that an increase in the cost of illegal immigration created by U.S. policing efforts and organized crime's involvement in human smuggling have contributed to the recent decrease of unauthorized immigration into the United States. But, it argues that "profound demographic and economic changes in Mexico" are also behind the decline and that those changes will result in a significant drop in supply of illegal Mexican workers in the near future.
As evidence, report authors cite economic reforms during the presidency of Felipe Calderón, who stepped down after his term expired in December 2012 after undertaking the first major restructuring of Mexico's labor code since its creation in 1931. Current President Enrique Peña Nieto has signaled his intention to continue reform, report authors say, noting a new law that would open up the country's telecommunications sector to competition and permit foreign investment in state petroleum monopoly Pemex.
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Wage growth in China means Mexico's lower transportation costs to the United States have helped it regain a competitive edge, and Mexico's economy is projected to grow this year at a rate of 3.3 percent, the report says.
Authors also note a slowing in population growth, from more than 3 percent during the 1960s to just 1.2 percent in 2011, according to World Bank statistics.
The poverty and labor force excess that drove illegal Mexican migration, in other words, are lessening in force (although more than one-third of the Mexican population still lives in poverty). Such conditions are still very strong in Central America, as are security threats. Although El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras have experienced robust economic growth, "their demographic characteristics resemble those of Mexico that, two decades ago, promoted outward flows," and employment statistics suggest that economic growth hasn't resulted in sufficient progress for those nations' poor, which vary from more than 45 percent of the populace to 65 percent (the latter in Honduras).
A rise in the proportion of Central Americans transiting through Mexico to reach the United States as a percentage of total illegal immigration along the southwestern border will transform migration from a binational Mexican-U.S. issue to a multinational one where Mexico could emerge as an important player, authors say.
They recommend the United States deepen its partnership with Mexico and multilateral financial situations so that better border security, governance and economic reforms can take root within Central America itself as a means of easing the pressures that drive its citizens to migrate.
- download the report, "Diminishing Mexican Immigration to the United States" (.pdf)
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Read more: Decreasing Mexican immigration will change illegal immigration dynamics, says CSIS -