AZMEX POLICY 7-7-18

AZMEX POLICY 7 JUL 2018

Andrés Manuel López Obrador will not be able to modify the Constitution alone.
Photo: Agencies
By: El Universal | 07/07/2018 9:35

http://www.lacronica.com/EdicionEnLinea/Notas/Nacional/07072018/1354996-Andres-Manuel-Lopez-Obrador-no-podra-modificar-la-Constitucion-solo.html

CD. MEXICO (El Universal)

Despite the fact that Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the parties that nominated him will have legislative majorities in the Congress of the Union, the Tabasqueño, Encuentro Social (PES) y el Partido del Trabajo (PT) will be obliged to negotiate with other political forces to be able to make changes to the Constitution.

According to the first projections, Morena, Encuentro Social (PES) and el Partido del Trabajo (PT) will have 68 of the 128 senators and approximately 307 of the 500 federal deputies.

With this number of legislators it gives them to make, on their own, modifications in laws, but they will have to negotiate and lobby with other political forces if they need to make changes in the constitution.

In accordance with the norm that governs the Senate of the Republic, to modify the Constitution a qualified majority is required, that is, two thirds of the senators present, and assuming that all the senators are in the hall (128 ), Morena, the PES and the PT would require the support of 86 to make changes.

In the case of the Chamber of Deputies, to change any law or ordinance the parties of the alliance Juntos Haremos Historia would need 251 legislators, which they already have, but to change the constitution they require 333 votes.

With these numbers, in the Senate of the Republic only 18 legislators are lacking, while in the Chamber of Deputies they lack 26.

According to the projections, the Senate of the Republic will be integrated by the parties as follows:
National Action (PAN) would add 24 senators by the majority and multi-member principles; PRI, 13 seats; PRD, eight; Encuentro Social (PES) y el Partido del Trabajo (PT), seven; MC will also have seven, and Nueva Alianza one.

Scenarios With this, if Morena lacks 18 legislators in the Senate to form majorities to modify the Constitution, it has three scenarios to consider in order to complete a majority.

The most viable union that political specialists see is with the alliance formed by PRI, Verde and Nueva Alianza, due to the proximity of ideologies that exist between the PRI and Morena, and that in Morena there are important and close profiles of Andrés Manuel López Obrador that militaron in the PRI, Verde and NA will have 21 senators and Morena requires 20.

The second scenario, but more complicated, is a union between Morena and the PAN, alone, without its Front allies. However, political scientists do not see this union due to how their candidates were confronted in the presidential contest, Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Ricardo Anaya, respectively.

Although there is also the possibility that Morena would talk with the whole Front as a whole, that is, PAN, PRD and MC, and there would be a qualified majority.

Saint Lazaro. The integration of the Chamber of Deputies, according to projections, would be as follows: PAN would have 82 federal legislators; PRI, 45; PRD, 21; Verde 16, and NA only two.
To reach the 333 federal deputies needed to modify the constitution, Morena, PES and PT require another 26.

In this case, the scenarios for Lopez Obrador's matches open wider. To negotiate, for example, with the mere sum of the legislators of the PAN, or of the PRI, or of Movimiento Ciudadano, it would give them to reach an absolute majority.

However, the most viable scenario also to concretize a constitutional bloc would be with the PRI, Verde and Green and New Alliance. If this hypothesis is achieved, there would be 370 legislators.

The alliance of the PRI-Morena is not new, since from the 63 Legislature, which is about to end, it was specified for different opinions to vote as the appointment of the new Superior Auditor of the Federation, David Colmenares.

On that occasion, the Blue and Whites' coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies, Marko Cortés, accused the PRI legislators and the members of Morena of integrating the "PRI-Mor", with the objective of endorsing the auditor, even though there was no agreement between the parliamentary groups.

The hypothesis of a union between Morena and the Front is also complicated, due to the accusations by the PAN that there was a pact between López Obrador and Enrique Peña Nieto for el tabasqueño (AMLO) to reach the Presidency of the Republic.

The party that will have more deputies and senators, will be Morena, with 191 seats and 55 seats. (?)

Map is reconfigured With the recent triumph of Morena, the map and the renewal of forces in both chambers were reconfigured.

Currently, the 500 deputies are distributed as follows: PRI, with 204 (40.8%); PAN, 180 (21.6%); PRD, 53 (10.6%); Morena, 47 (9.4%); PVEM, 38 (7.6%); MC, 21 (4.2%); NA and PES, 12 deputies each (2.4%); an independent deputy and also four without a political party.

While in the Senate of the Republic the Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) has 55 (43%); PAN, 34 (27%); PT-Morena, 19 (15%);
without party, eight (6%); PRD, seven (5%), and Verde Ecologista de México five (4%).

END